Novelty betting covers everything that is not sport: television results, award ceremonies, politics, the weather on Christmas Day. Britain is unusual in allowing it at all, and that is the first thing to understand about this market.
What is allowed, and where
In Great Britain, licensed bookmakers can price non-sporting events, and they do so extensively. That freedom is a feature of the British market rather than a universal rule — many regulated markets restrict betting to sport, and the United States is considerably more restrictive on political markets in particular, with the position varying by state.
So a market you see quoted by a UK-licensed operator will not necessarily be available to a reader elsewhere. Our pages on UK bookmakers and US sports betting cover what each market permits.
The recurring markets
| Category | Examples | When |
|---|---|---|
| Television | Reality show winners, talent contests, drama outcomes | Through the series |
| Awards | Film and music awards, book prizes | Announcement season |
| Politics | Elections, leadership contests, referendums | Campaign periods |
| Weather | A white Christmas, record temperatures | Seasonal |
| Royal and public life | Names, honours, appointments | Occasional |
| Entertainment specials | Half-time shows, anthem length, colour of an outfit | Around big events |
The margins are wide, and here is why
Add up the implied probabilities on a typical novelty board and you will find an overround of 120 to 140 per cent — two or three times what you would pay on a football match.
There are two honest reasons for it. The first is that these markets attract small, recreational stakes and the price bears it. The second is more interesting: the bookmaker has far less information than it does about a football match. There is no form, no model, no historical base rate for who wins a talent show. Uncertainty on the operator's side is paid for by a wider margin on yours.
Where the information problem cuts the other way
Novelty markets are the one corner of betting where a member of the public can genuinely know more than the bookmaker — and operators are acutely aware of it.
Pre-recorded television is the classic case: if a result is already filmed, somebody knows it. Award shortlists, honours lists and appointments are decided before they are announced, and the people who decided are not always discreet. Bookmakers respond by keeping stakes low, suspending markets abruptly when money arrives from an unexpected direction, and voiding bets where they conclude the outcome was already known.
That last point is worth reading carefully in the terms. A market that looks soft may simply be one where a win would be scrutinised.
Weather markets and the definition problem
A white Christmas is the best-known novelty bet in Britain, and it is the clearest illustration of why settlement rules matter more than odds in this category.
The bet does not usually require snow lying on the ground, or a picturesque scene, or even snow you would notice. It typically requires a single snowflake observed at a specified weather station on 25 December — the station is named in the terms, and different bookmakers name different ones.
Every weather market works this way: the payout turns on a precise, technical definition and a named data source. Read that definition before the price.
Political markets
The biggest novelty markets by turnover, and the ones that behave most like real markets, because the volume is high enough to make prices meaningful.
Three cautions. Settlement can be genuinely ambiguous — "next leader" markets have to define what counts as a leader and when. Timeframes can slip, leaving money tied up like any ante-post position. And availability is restricted or prohibited in a number of jurisdictions, so check before assuming a market you have read about is open to you.
Betting on them sensibly
Novelty markets are entertainment with a cost attached, and the cost is larger than on sport. Two rules keep them that way rather than something worse: read the settlement terms first, because they decide more of these bets than the outcome does; and treat the stake as the price of the interest, not as an investment in a view.
Frequently asked questions
Can I bet on politics from the United States?
The position varies by state and is considerably more restrictive than in Britain. Check the rules where you are before assuming a market is available.
What happens if a TV show result leaks?
Operators routinely suspend markets when unusual money arrives, and may void bets where they judge the outcome was already known. The terms cover this explicitly.
Why are the odds so much worse than on football?
Wide margins reflect both low stakes and genuine uncertainty on the bookmaker's side: there is no model for a talent show.
What counts as a white Christmas?
Usually a single snowflake falling at a named weather station on 25 December. The station is specified in the terms and differs between bookmakers.
Related guides: special bets · ante-post betting · virtual sports · UK bookmakers