Penalty markets bet on whether a spot kick will be awarded, and sometimes on what happens next. It is a simple yes/no question with an unusually long price attached, and understanding why that price is what it is tells you most of what you need to know.
How often penalties actually happen
Across the major European leagues, a penalty is awarded in somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of matches — roughly one every four or five games, although the rate varies by competition and has drifted upwards since video review arrived.
That produces prices in this region:
| Market | Typical price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Penalty awarded — yes | 4.33 | 23% |
| Penalty awarded — no | 1.20 | 83% |
| Penalty scored — yes | 5.50 | 18% |
| Penalty missed or saved | 15.00 | 7% |
Add the first two and you get 106 per cent, so the margin is in line with other two-way football markets. What catches people out is the gap between "awarded" and "scored": spot kicks convert at roughly four times in five, so the scored market is meaningfully longer than the awarded one, and both are on the board.
Video review raised the rate
The clearest effect of video assistant referees on betting markets has been on penalties. Incidents that were missed in real time — shirt pulls at corners, contact at the far post, handballs outside the referee's line of sight — are now reviewed and given. Penalty awards rose across the leagues that adopted the technology and have stayed higher.
Two consequences for a bettor. First, historical base rates from before video review understate the current frequency. Second, and more practically, a penalty is not awarded until the review is complete. In play, the price will move on the referee pointing to the spot and move back if the decision is overturned. Our page on the VAR explains the review process; our guide to card betting covers the same settlement question for dismissals.
What makes a penalty more likely
- A team that attacks through the box rather than around it. Crosses and cut-backs draw contact; shots from range do not.
- A deep, packed defence. Ten men in their own area for ninety minutes will eventually make contact with someone.
- The referee. As with cards, officials differ consistently in how readily they point to the spot. Appointments are published in advance.
- A heavy favourite at home. Sustained pressure against a defending side is the classic penalty scenario, and it is why the yes price shortens in mismatched fixtures.
The markets you will find
- Penalty awarded in the match. The staple, yes or no.
- Penalty scored. Requires the award and the conversion.
- Penalty in either half. Splits the market and lengthens the odds considerably.
- Which team is awarded one. Three-way, including neither.
- Penalty saved. A specials market at long odds — goalkeepers save roughly one in five or six.
The taker matters more than the team
If you are backing "penalty scored" rather than "penalty awarded", the identity of the designated taker is a real variable. Conversion rates differ enough between reliable and unreliable takers to move the price, and a rested or substituted first-choice taker changes the bet. That is also why the anytime goalscorer price on a penalty taker carries a premium.
Shootouts are a different market entirely
Worth stating plainly because it is a common and expensive confusion. Standard penalty markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A penalty shootout at the end of a cup tie is not a penalty awarded in the match, and neither the shootout kicks nor any penalty awarded during extra time count towards these markets.
Shootouts have their own markets: to win the shootout, number of kicks taken, and whether the shootout goes to sudden death.
Is it worth backing?
As a standalone bet, penalty markets are a coin toss dressed up as analysis — the events are too infrequent and too referee-dependent to model reliably from the outside. Where they earn their place is as a bet-builder leg in a fixture where the shape of the game genuinely points that way: a dominant home side against a deep block, with a referee who gives them.
Frequently asked questions
Do penalties in a shootout count?
No. Standard penalty markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
What if a penalty is awarded and then overturned by video review?
It did not happen for settlement purposes. Only the final decision counts.
Does a retaken penalty count twice?
No. A retake is part of the same award, and the market settles on the eventual outcome.
What happens if a penalty is saved and the rebound is scored?
"Penalty scored" loses — the spot kick itself was not converted — while "penalty awarded" wins. The rebound counts as a normal goal for other markets.
Related guides: card betting · anytime goalscorer · the VAR · football betting