Double chance covers two of the three results in a football match with a single bet. You give up the long price in exchange for a much better chance of collecting. It is the market for the fixture you are fairly confident about but not confident enough to back outright.
The three combinations
| Bet | Notation | Wins if | Loses only if |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home or draw | 1X | The home side wins or the match is level | The away side wins |
| Away or draw | X2 | The away side wins or the match is level | The home side wins |
| Home or away | 12 | Either side wins | The match is drawn |
Like 1X2, double chance settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time in a cup tie does not count.
What it costs you
Take the fixture priced 1.85 / 3.60 / 4.20. The double chance prices derived from it look roughly like this:
| Bet | Typical price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1X (home or draw) | 1.22 | 82% |
| X2 (away or draw) | 1.92 | 52% |
| 12 (home or away) | 1.30 | 77% |
A £10 bet on 1X returns £12.20. That is a modest return for a bet that wins around four times in five — and the arithmetic is the point. To profit at 1.22 you need to win more than 82 per cent of the time. Most people who use double chance heavily are winning around 75 to 80 per cent and losing money slowly, which feels like bad luck and is not.
When it earns its place
Three situations, all of them specific:
- A strong home side against a well-organised defensive team. The win is not certain; the defeat is genuinely unlikely. 1X at 1.20 is a sensible expression of that view.
- An away favourite in a hostile fixture. X2 at 1.40 covers the draw that a raucous crowd and a tight pitch make plausible.
- As an accumulator leg. This is where double chance is genuinely useful. Four 1X selections at 1.25 each multiply to 2.44 — a modest return, but a four-fold that survives four draws. It converts an acca from a lottery into something closer to a calculated bet. Our guide to accumulators explains why the margin still compounds.
Double chance against draw no bet
These two get confused constantly, and they are not the same.
| Double chance 1X | Draw no bet, home | |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | Wins at 1.22 | Wins at about 1.45 |
| Draw | Wins at 1.22 | Stake returned |
| Away win | Loses | Loses |
Double chance pays out on the draw; draw no bet refunds on it. Which is better depends entirely on how likely you think the draw is. If you expect a tight game, double chance turns that expectation into profit. If you expect a home win and merely want insurance against a stalemate, draw no bet gives you a much better price on the outcome you actually want.
Double chance in other sports
The market only exists where a draw is possible, so it is essentially a football bet. It appears in handball, in rugby occasionally, and in ice hockey on the three-way regulation-time market — where a draw after 60 minutes is a real outcome even though the game itself always produces a winner. In tennis, basketball and the NFL there is no draw to cover, so no double chance.
The margin question
Double chance prices are derived from the 1X2 board, and the bookmaker's margin is applied again in the conversion. That means backing 1X is usually very slightly worse value than backing 1 and X separately with proportional stakes. The difference is small, and most people accept it for the convenience of a single bet — but if you are staking seriously, it is worth knowing which way it runs.
Frequently asked questions
Does double chance include extra time?
No. It settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, like the match result market it is derived from.
Why is 12 not much shorter than 1X?
Because the draw is a substantial share of outcomes. Removing it — which is what 12 does — costs almost as much as removing an away win.
Can I combine double chance selections in an accumulator?
Yes, and it is one of the better uses of the market. You cannot combine double chance with the match result of the same fixture, because the outcomes are related.
Is double chance good value?
It is fairly priced rather than generous. The short odds mean a high strike rate is required, and it is easy to overestimate how often a favourite avoids defeat.
Related guides: 1X2 betting · accumulators · both teams to score · football betting